The hottest two barrels of oil fear losses in the

Two barrels of oil production sector may suffer losses in 2016

some analysts predict that on the whole, the international crude oil price in 2016 will show a downward trend or continue to fluctuate at a low level, and the performance level of oil production enterprises may continue to deteriorate

it was learned that on January 6, the energy and environmental policy research center of Beijing University of technology held the 2016 "applicable materials: economic forecast and Outlook report conference of metal and non-metallic material sources" in Beijing. The press conference released seven research reports, including the 13th five year plan and 2030 energy economy outlook, 2016 oil industry outlook forecast and enlightenment, and 2016 international crude oil price analysis and trend forecast

according to the report, the international crude oil price in 2016 will also show a downward trend or continue to fluctuate at a low level, and the oil production sectors of PetroChina and SINOPEC are likely to suffer losses. At the same time, due to the large proportion of PetroChina's oil production business, the performance level is under great pressure. The performance differentiation of the two barrels of oil may continue to increase

in addition, the demand for non fossil energy will increase year by year during the 13th Five Year Plan period, and it is expected that the demand for non fossil energy will exceed that of oil in 2020

two barrels of oil are trapped, and the oil price continues to fall

the oil production sector is afraid to suffer losses this year

it is understood that the above report was formed on the basis of long-term in-depth research by the research team led by Professor Wei Yiming, a Changjiang Scholar and recipient of the National Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars

the report "2016 petroleum industry outlook forecast and Enlightenment" mentioned that among integrated companies, PetroChina's upstream business (oil exploration and production) accounted for a large proportion, which was directly impacted by the sharp decline in oil prices, and the gross profit margin of this sector fell from 33.5% in 2012 to 20.5% in the first half of 2015. Similarly, Sinopec's upstream business has also been severely impacted, with profits shrinking, and its gross profit margin fell from 39.7% in 2012 to 17.6% in the first half of 2015, a large decline. However, as Sinopec's business is mainly concentrated in the middle and downstream industries, compared with PetroChina, the decline in the profits of the oil exploration and production sector has a smaller impact on the overall performance of Sinopec

in addition, the lower oil price is good for the refining and chemical sector in the middle and lower reaches. Both companies have turned losses into profits, but due to the impact of overcapacity in the entire refining and chemical industry and the slowdown in demand growth, the profit growth rate cannot rise significantly

in 2015, oil production enterprises directly suffered the impact of the decline in oil prices, and their profits fell sharply. If the oil price remains depressed, the performance level of oil production enterprises may continue to deteriorate

Zhao Lutao, a postdoctoral fellow at the energy and environmental policy research center of Beijing University of technology, said that OPEC crude oil production will further increase. Russia refuses to reduce production, and the United States is expected to reduce production by a small margin. It is expected that the international crude oil market supply will not decline significantly in 2016, and the oversupply situation is difficult to be significantly improved, although the oil price has fallen to the cost price level in 2015, However, in 2016, the international crude oil price will show a downward trend or continue to fluctuate at a low level

the report also pointed out that the oil production sectors of PetroChina and Sinopec were likely to suffer losses in 2016; Under the situation of high overall prosperity of the refining and chemical industry, Sinopec may be able to achieve a greater degree of profits in its advantageous refining and chemical sector, which will improve the overall performance level; However, due to the large proportion of oil production business, the performance level of PetroChina is under great pressure. Therefore, the performance differentiation of the two barrels of oil may continue to increase

energy prices will run low for a long time

non fossil energy demand will exceed oil

it is worth noting that a batch of 5 tons of advertising division with the same diameter is used as a batch. The report of the 13th five year plan and 2030 energy economic outlook also shows that energy prices will run low for a long time, which is objectively not conducive to the control of energy consumption

international energy prices are expected to stabilize at a low level for a long time due to factors such as low energy demand caused by the global economic slowdown and increased energy supply from shale oil and gas production in the United States. Although low energy prices are conducive to reducing enterprise operating costs, they may objectively stimulate energy consumption, which is not conducive to the realization of energy conservation, emission reduction and environmental protection goals

the report points out that under the background of the "new normal" of energy, China's coal consumption is likely to reach a peak within the "13th five year plan", which will become an important step in China's energy transformation. In 2014, the proportion of China's energy demand for coal has fallen to 66%, which can fall to about 62% in 2017, and is expected to continue to fall to 58%-60% in 2020; In 2015, China's energy demand accounted for 18.8% and will drop to 17.6% in 2020

in addition, the demand for natural gas is growing rapidly, the oil-gas ratio is optimized, and unconventional natural gas production will play an increasingly important role

according to preliminary calculations, the proportion of non fossil energy (including geothermal heating and biofuels) in China reached 12% in 2015, and it is expected to further increase to 14% - 16% in 2020, which is comparable to the demand for oil, and is expected to exceed the proportion of oil later