India, Vietnam and Japan ordered Asian fuel in large quantities. The sharing mode is that the demand for engine oil is about to rise sharply.
international crude oil has been rising all the way since June 27. WTI crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange broke through $75, and the rise is in good shape, with a great potential to break the historical record of $80. The spot price of fuel oil (3636,88,2.48%) in Singapore has set a new record for 11 times in a month, reaching a maximum of $398.35/ton. The domestic market is full of fatigue. The price of Huangpu fuel oil has been hovering around 3520 yuan, showing a weak consolidation trend. It seems difficult to make a breakthrough upward. It broke through the 3600 main line only on Friday driven by the external market. Crude oil may hit a record high. The bull market in this round of crude oil market has lasted for more than 8 years. Although there are other complex factors, the fundamental reason is the tension between supply and demand. In terms of supply, the International Energy Agency (IEA) issued the interim oil market report on July 9, saying that the original 3 TLS (5) 0I ~ 2000i shows that the oil supply situation of spring tension and compression test is not optimistic. The supply of mature oil producing areas such as the North Sea and Mexico in the UK fell faster than expected, while the supply growth rate of emerging oil regions such as Russia was disappointing
at the end of June, the crude oil production of OPEC country Nigeria decreased by 766000 barrels/day. Nigeria is the sixth largest crude oil import source country of the United States. OPEC implemented a production reduction during the fall of oil prices in the second half of 2006, resulting in the continuous decline of world oil inventories. By the end of 2008, the commercial inventory of OECD countries will reach the bottom of the historical level of the past five years. From the perspective of demand, world crude oil consumption has not declined due to the rising price, but has shown a strong rigidity. On the one hand, economic growth has increased the world's energy demand, on the other hand, the opening process of oil alternative energy is slow. 50% - 60% of crude oil is used for transportation, and the demand for oil in the transportation industry is rising strongly. The American Energy Information Association (EIA) said in its "short term outlook for the energy market" released on July 10 that in the second quarter, world energy consumption increased by 1.4 million barrels per day over the same period last year, an increase of 400000 barrels per day over the first quarter. In the second quarter, oil consumption in China and the United States increased by 500000 barrels per day and 200000 barrels per day respectively over the same period last year
the rise in crude oil prices cannot be driven by funds. According to the latest data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Commission (CFTC), as of the week of July 13, the total crude oil position on the New York Mercantile Exchange continued to increase, with an increase of 47000 hands over the previous week, reaching 1546400 hands, more than 300000 hands higher than the peak last year. The net long position of the fund increased by 16100 to 112300, a record high, while the historical high in 2006 was 94000 on May 2. Although the net fund has the suspicion of excessive growth momentum and the risk of long position closing, as long as it remains above 90000 hands, the pace of crude oil price rise will certainly not stop
this summer, there are many themes that can raise oil prices. For example, summer is the peak period of gasoline consumption, hurricane weather, the overhaul of Britain's North Sea oil field, the American refinery accident, geopolitics (the uncertain situation in Nigeria and the Iranian nuclear issue, etc.). Fuel oil is expected to rise slowly. Singapore is the world's fuel oil pricing center. The fuel oil price in Singapore reflects the supply and demand of fuel oil in Asia and even the whole world. Recently, due to the rising crude oil price and the tight supply and demand in Singapore's fuel oil market, Singapore's fuel oil price has set a record high 10 times in a month
at present, it is at the peak of power consumption in summer, and the demand for fuel oil of power plants has increased. India, Vietnam and Japan have ordered large quantities of fuel oil in Singapore in the past two months. While the marine fuel oil has maintained a steady rise, the demand for fuel oil in Asia has been rising. On the other hand, the supply has not kept up. The arbitrage cargo entering Asia began to decline in July, with 2.4 million tons, and is expected to be only 1.8 million tons in August, lower than the average level. It can be predicted that even if Chinese traders, as important buyers, have weak purchasing power in Singapore, the price of fuel oil in Singapore can still reach a new high. The domestic fuel oil market has been in a very depressed state since June, mainly because the rising price of fuel oil has restrained demand. At present, the price of domestic fuel oil is upside down to about 140 yuan/ton, which also makes the demand for imported fuel oil exceptionally low, while the sales of domestic fuel oil with poor quality are smooth
at present, domestic fuel oil demand is at a low level, and the market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. This weak situation may be improved in a very short time, such as oil leakage. The reasons are: first of all, if the price of domestic refined oil rises again, the operating rate of local small refineries, as an important demand subject of fuel oil, will rise rapidly, stimulating the demand for fuel oil and raising the spot price of domestic fuel oil. Secondly, if the high temperature weather in the South continues, the oil fired power plant on the other demand side will be forced to increase the operating rate. At the same time, if the state subsidies for power plants are in place in time, it will also increase the demand for fuel oil of power plants, and also increase the spot price of domestic fuel oil. Third, the existence of domestic fuel oil depots continues to decrease. Since the fuel oil import tax was reduced at the end of May, import traders began to wait and see. In June, domestic fuel oil prices were seriously inverted, and the wait-and-see mood was further aggravated. The import arrival volume decreased significantly in July, while no other Singapore cargo arrived at Huangpu port in late July, except for two ships of bonded oil. The whole market is in a state of consuming inventory. To sum up, the future market of crude oil is expected to challenge a record high, the downturn in the domestic fuel oil market is expected to improve, and the price of fuel oil futures in Shanghai is expected to get rid of the current oscillation situation and rise sharply. Investors may wish to be cautious and long at the bottom
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